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Auto Tech Outlook | Wednesday, January 05, 2022

Consumer adoption will outpace regulatory expectations, with Europe's Electric Vehicle (EV) market share reaching over 75 percent by 2030.

FREMONT, CA:  By 2035, the world's leading automotive markets will have switched to electric vehicles. Regulatory pressure and customer interest in electric vehicles differ substantially by area. Europe is mainly a regulation-driven market with significant subsidies, whereas consumer pull in China is powerful despite lower incentives. EV sales have developed slowly in the United States due to a lack of regulatory pressure and customer interest. However, the regulation trend is expected to alter with the incoming administration.

Under the present regulatory targets, it is predicted that global EV adoption will reach 45 percent. Nonetheless, even this transformational EV growth forecast falls far short of what is required to reach net-zero emissions. By 2030, EVs will need to account for 75 percent of worldwide passenger car sales, which is much faster than the industry's present trajectory.

Further, as a regulatory-driven market with favorable consumer demand trends, Europe will electrify the fastest and will continue to lead the world in EV market share. Several countries have already pledged an end to ICE (internal combustion engine) sales by 2030, in addition to the European Commission's objective of about 60 percent EV sales by 2030. In line with this, seven OEM brands in the European Union have promised to sell 100 percent electric vehicles by 2030. In the most likely expedited scenario, consumer adoption will outpace regulatory expectations, with Europe's EV market share reaching over 75 percent by 2030. By 2035, the European Union has set a zero-emissions target for new cars.

China's electrification will continue to proliferate, and it will remain the world's largest EV market in absolute terms. Despite minimal EV subsidies and no official end date for ICE sales, strong consumer pull drives uptake. The government's dual-credit strategy, on the other hand, has raised the percentage of electric vehicles in OEM portfolios. In the expedited scenario, our adoption modeling predicts a Chinese EV market share of more than 70 percent for new car sales in 2030.

The United States established a goal of 50 percent electrification by 2030, significant expenditures in charging infrastructure, and more rigorous fleet emissions objectives. In the expedited scenario, U.S. OEMs support electrification ambitions and have declared ICE bans by 2035, implying that the US would catch up to Europe and China in terms of EV adoption with a slight delay; it is predicted to exceed existing regulatory targets and reach 65 percent EV sales by 2030.

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